Predictions For UFC 94: St. Pierre vs. Penn II
When an event like St. Pierre vs. Penn II rolls around the anticipation and excitement seem to overshadow almost everything else going on in the world. While I’m simply happy to be able to witness what should be a truly epic battle, it just wouldn’t be a proper fight weekend without the usual predictions. Enjoy.
Welterweight Title Bout
Georges St. Pierre vs. BJ Penn
Prediction: St. Pierre via TKO, Round 5.
Let me begin by stating that anyone who claims they can predict Saturday night’s main event with any real certainty is either lying to you or on drugs. That being said, I’m going with Georges St. Pierre. I’m picking GSP simply because he is the better- nay, the best 170lb fighter in the game today. BJ Penn is undoubtedly the very best 155lb fighter in the world, but that all goes right out the window once you decide to jump weight classes to face the most physically gifted and hardest working man in all of mixed martial arts.
At welterweight, we know that St. Pierre has the gas tank, the skill set, and the sheer will to conquer whatever challenge emerges from the other side of the octagon. Can the same be said for Penn? At lightweight, absolutely. But I just don’t trust Penn’s conditioning at 170lbs (despite all of the neato rock walking), nor am I completely confident that Penn is thoroughly prepared for the GSP 2.0 of today compared to the version he first met nearly three years ago.
St. Pierre’s wrestling and submission defense were strong enough in 2006 to nullify most of what “The Prodigy” had to offer, and his skills have only improved leaps and bounds since. Even if GSP starts to get tuned up standing and trading with BJ a la their first round at UFC 58, the aggressive takedowns and constant pressure should still be enough to earn GSP plenty of points on the scorecards. Of course, there is always the possibility that BJ puts an immediate halt to the Canadian’s infamous “riddum” with a well placed power shot, but I really don’t see that happening. St. Pierre should be smart enough to fully employ his world class wrestling and ground n’ pound in the event that boxing with the Hawaiian proves unsuccessful yet again.
I hypothesize St. Pierre to ultimately outwork Penn and quite literally beat him into submission. TKO, final round.
Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva
Prediction: Machida via unanimous decision
This match up is far less complicated compared to our main event, which is largely due to the fact that no one on the face of the earth has been able to crack the secret code of how to defeat Lyoto Machida. Though an impressive and extremely promising fighter, undefeated Thiago Silva really hasn’t faced anyone nearly equal to Machida’s caliber in his previous outings. Factor in Machida’s patented ability to “elude” and frustrate nearly all of his opponents, and you have a fairly one sided bout.
If Silva can remain patient he might just be able to slip in a few good strikes here and there, but Lyoto always finds a way to make you miss and he does not care about grinding out decisions. I don’t suspect Silva to get picked apart, but I just don’t see how he can win either. Machida via yet another unanimous decision.
Karo Parisyan vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Prediction: Parisyan via TKO, Round 2.
No offense to Matt Brown, but honestly if Dong Hyun Kim couldn’t finish Brown at UFC 88 back in September (many thought Brown actually won that fight), then I don’t particularly like his chances against a much tougher Karo Parisyan this Saturday night. Though Kim should prove to be a legitimate test for Karo, I really cant envision him posing any serious threats to the Armenian judoka. Karo has been dealing with some personal issues as of late but I believe that will all fall by the wayside once he steps back into the octagon. Expect a very game Karo looking to re-establish himself as a welterweight contender. Given Kim’s highly suspicious cardio, I’ll say “The Heat” scores a TKO inside the second frame.
Nate Diaz vs. Clay Guida
Prediction: Diaz via submission
Regardless of who ends up winning this one, it may very well contend for fight of the night honors alongside GSP vs. Penn. Clay Guida’s biggest strength has always been his glaring weakness: A menacing tenacity and aggression. I feel like Diaz has the edge given his high end jiujitsu and above average striking, not to mention a significant height/reach advantage. Guida will surely look for the takedown early, but I worry that once he gets Diaz down he will either get swept and mounted or caught in a submission from the bottom. I have to go with Diaz via some type of sub.
Jon Fitch vs. Akihiro Gono
Prediction: Fitch via TKO, round 1.
Back when Fitch was originally slated to face Gono I had him picked to win a decision. Now that he’s undergone a beating from GSP and UFC brass alike, I’m thinking Fitch might come out with a tad more intensity than usual and look to finish “The Magic Man” as quickly as humanly possible. Akihiro Gono has always proved to be an “interesting” opponent, but his most recent loss to Dan Hardy really doesn’t leave me with an abundance of confidence in his chances against a top 5 welterweight. Expect Fitch to score a takedown early and end things with some old fashioned ground n’ pound.
Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones
Prediction: Bonnar via submission, Round 3.
This match has upset potential written all over it, but I’m not going to take the bait…at this time. Jon Jones has looked very dangerous in the few fights of his I’ve seen and Stephan Bonnar hasn’t competed since October of 2007. If Bonnar isn’t sharp he could get caught with a goodnight shot before you can even spell ring rust. It’s a tough call, but I’ll say that Bonnar perseveres through early danger and wears Jones down to the canvas for a nice submission victory.
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Very well written Eric.
I concur with all of your predictions with the exceptions of the Guida / Diaz fight and Thiago / Machida Fight.
First off I believe that Guida will be to much for Diaz at this point in his career. Diaz Is going to be big in the LW division, but right now i feel his reliance on his ground game will not be enough to carry him to the top. I feel Guida is more well rounded, much more experienced and has a pace that disrupts fighters game plans. We saw it both in the Juerta and Danzig fights. Even though Juerta won that fight he was very frustrated by not being able to stop the take downs of Guida and not being able to land those clean flush power shots he has been known to do. I pick Guida Via Decision. (Danzig should be fighting Diaz next.)
Now on to the Thiago / Machida fight. I will take a different approach to this analytical break down. Machida has a very good defensive strategy that has frustrated many opponents, but when you have such a great defense your offense must score you points. If Thiago would play a defensive strategy as well we would not have a fight. What I am trying to say is that because of Machidas dull defensive strategy he deserves to lose. I want to see him fight and win in an impressive way. I believe Thiago has this ability and is far more exciting to watch. In my eyes this makes him a much better fighter and this is why he will win. Thiago Via TKO 3rd round…
Nico I agree on the Guida fight Iam picking Guida because Guida is an energizer bunny that just wont quit. Diaz has never faced someone who can out work him in every aspect…Guida by unanimous decision. On the Machida fight I have to go the other way…Machida is by far the quickest 205lb fighter there is in the UFC. Machida TKO round 3.
The whole point of taking fighters from all different disciplines and putting them in one competition is to see who wins. Just who wins, not necessarily who does it in the most aggressive, spectacular manner. Machida’s style isn’t the most crowd pleasing in the world, sure, but he has exacted dominant victories none the less. If he isn’t the most exciting fighter to watch, at least he doesn’t lay n pray which truly isn’t dynamic at all. His game plan obviously revolves around timing and confusing and wearing his opponent down. I give him the edge over T. Silva for being the more intelligent fighter.
As for excitement in a fight, Ive long held that the UFC should institute penalty cards for non-activity in the octagon. This causes fighters like Machida who aren’t just fighting to please the fans to step up their tactics in a fight.
Agreed, except for Machida/Silva.
I get the feeling that after everything that’s happened in the lhw division this past six months, little Lyoto is feeling mighty left out of the game. He’s an amazing fighter and has a hell of a win streak, but there’s been this huge spotlight placed on the division (especially as of late) as pretty much the central draw of the UFC, not to mention the slew of great fighters showing off everything they’ve got the past few months. He’s GOT to feel very, very much like that weird kid in the playground who isn’t allowed to play with the other kids.
I see him coming out much too aggressive for his style and getting KO’d.
I fully expect machida to pick up the victory. I saw on another site where they figures up elusiveness of fighters based on the number of shots thrown by their opponents in relation to the number absorbed, Machida is second only to Fedor, and these numbers were based on their entire body of work. Regardless of Fedor recent lack of competition he’s still good company when it comes to skills in the fight business.
I’m thinking BJ will get the TKO early, but I’m going to try my hardest to simply watch and enjoy the fight. Also, my feelings won’t be hurt a bit if GSP wins, I like that guy a lot.
In regards to Kim and Parisyan, I jet don’t know where Karo’s head is, if he even makes the fight. If Kim fcea the fill in, r definitely should take the win.
Bonnar should get the win, but Jones should be a game opponent.
GSP by TKO(5) Too much for too long
Silva KO(1) Total destruction
Kim Sub(2) Gets caught by sub
Guida UD Relentless attack
Fitch UD Better all round game
Jones TKO(2) Would like to see a war…
winners-
penn/gsp- penn by sub
silva/machida- machida what is silva going to do that tito or anybody else didint try to do
karo/kim- well i think karo should win but he hasnt been medically clered to fight so..
guida/diaz- guida should win if he keeps his composure
fitch/gono- who would pick against fitch here
jones/bonnar- bonnor by ud
BJ/GSP- if the first fight is any indication(I still do not envy those who had to judge that fight) this will most likely be a razor thin decision that either fighter could be deemed the winner. I do not know who the judges are tonight but some judges see the fights like wrestling matches (meaning more takedowns=more points) and if that is the case GSP wins. If it stays standing BJ wins in my opinion, if GSP does what he did in the first Hughes fight and get overzealous trying to pull a sub, BJ counters and wins. If BJ just pulls guard all fight GSP wins. Basically, there are too many variables to really choose one but if I had to I am taking Penn by split decision, since he’s been wanting this for awhile.
Machida/Silva- Machida can still knock people out(just ask Mr. Franklin) and his ground game is better. I honestly see this going for Machida and it could very well be by KO in the 3rd. I think Silva is frustrated all fight by Machida’s style and pushes too hard and leaves himself vulnerable and gets KO’d by a counter shot.
Karo/Kim- honestly depends on which karo shows up(or if he’s allowed to for that matter), if it’s the Karo of old he walks all over Kim if it’s the one of late he messes around and Kim win’s by KO. that said I am taking Karo by 2nd round KO.
Guida/Diaz- this should be an interesting fight to see. Honestly, I envision a poor man’s GSP-BJ one for this fight. I think Guida pushes the pace on the feet and Diaz holds his own with decent boxing and then Guida takes him down and is unable to ground and pound w/ Diaz chaining together submission attempt after submission attempt. Depending on the judges it could be a unanimous decision for Guida or a split decision for him IF it goes the distance. That being said I think Guida starts to tire in the 3rd due to constantly fighting off sub attempt after sub attempt from Diaz, and when he takes a hard but sloppy shot Diaz’s length enables him to hook in a triangle choke. So Diaz by triangle choke in the 3rd.
Fitch/Gono- I honestly think Gono may regret signing his name on the line for this fight. Fitch had a humbling yet valiant attempt to take out GSP and then this business w/ the UFC licensing group has made him into a caged animal. Now if he is too aggressive Gono could take advantage but I think Fitch overwhelms him early and ground and pounds him out in the first.
Bonnar/Jones- Ok Jones brings an impressive record to the octogan tonight against the veteran Bonnar. Bonnar has had a long lay-off between fights that even Fedor would envy, so rust may be a factor. That said Bonnar has faced better competition in the past and his only 4 losses are two UD’s to a former champ, a majority dec to the current champion, and a TKO(by cut) to (future champ?) Lyoto Machida, so it’s not exactly like he loses to lesser opponents. The questions are in his conditioning and how rusty he is. If he is truly ready I am taking Bonnar via TKO in the 1st. If not there could be an upset decision win by Jones. I think though Bonnar knows his inactivity could cost him his contract if he is not winning so I really think he wins this fight over Jones in a quick yet brutal fight with Jones.
cannot wait for tonight…
Penn via TKO in the 2nd i feel BJ will knock out GSP i just have a feeling that GSP will be picked apart from the start of round 1
Machida via a surprise surprise decision
Karo via split decision will be very close
Guida via G&P in the 3rd Guida is too strong for Nate to deal with
Bonnar via a Unaminous decision
Fitch decsion
Thiago Tavares decision
Chris Wilson decision
Jake O’Brien decision
Matt Arroyo decision
yes i see a lot of desions.
I’m gonna agree with eric for the GSP/PENN fight and the Machida/Silva fight.
I’m just gonna put it out there I see GSP/Penn almost being 1 sided IMO.
I’m willing to eat crow for it, if Penn pulls it off, cause I love him as well. But GSP has become an absolute animal, And has faced better competition since last they fought.
In the show Penn calls GSP weak minded and a B**ch. But if GSP wins and does so in dominate fashion how is Penn gonna respond to losing 2 him a second time???? IMO and IMO alone I see penn being the weaker minded. By his talk and antics and his not willing to train as hard in the past to be a champion..
In his loses GSP has came back stronger and better than ever.
In the Penn loses he drop down to a lower weight and still looks the same in his fights to me. Outside his cardio being better I haven’t seen any drastic improvements in his already talented skills. IMO
Lots of good comments here… Eric, excellent commentary on the two main events. I couldn’t have agreed more with your assessment, and I’m happy to say that those two bouts are the only ones I feel good about having called in advance.
Until someone lays a glove on Lyoto Machida, don’t tell me he’s not the best 205 fighter in the world (except when Anderson Silva is playing at it). The closest we’ve come to seeing the Dragon in peril in the Octagon was a half-hearted, last minute triangle by Tito. The guy is a riddle, wrapped in an enigma that no one has had even a clue, much less an answer for. No reason he shouldn’t be next in line for Rashad Evans at 205.
GSP. I’m biased, because he is my favorite fighter. What can I say, the talent, the athleticism, the class with which he carries himself… he’s the complete package. My pre-fight prediction was that I respect BJ’s ability, but that GSP would run through him like a freight train. That’s exactly what happened tonight. GSP was too big, too fast, too strong… too good. There was never a question for me once the fight went to the ground in the second round. There was just no way the BJ… no way that ANYONE at 170 is getting GSp off of them once he’s taken them down. Good call BJ’s corner to stop the fight… I think we all know what was coming in round 5? If I were a betting man (I am), I’d bet that Baby James is regretting calling the Champ a quitter right about now.
– ZiG
your right thiago never got picked apart he got absolutely demolished he never even deserved to be in that fight and machida showed that to him and everyone else machida beat tito soku and nakamura thiago beat mendes drawl and houston no ground game alexander little different resumes there thiago was only there because his style is popular