Predictions For UFC 92 “The Ultimate 2008″
UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 Poster
Appropriately named, “The Ultimate 2008” indeed looks to be the most impressive card (on paper at least) of the entire year. We’ve got two titles at stake, a compelling story line for a former champion now on the comeback trail, as well as some very promising heavyweight and middleweight battles. Let’s get to it.
Light Heavyweight Championship Bout: Forrest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans
Prediction: Evans via split decision.
I’m actually hoping this fight does not play out the way I imagine it will, but I have to go with my head and not my heart when it comes to predictions (especially if there’s money on the line.)
Everyone knows Forrest Griffin loves the scrap, in fact Griffin has said that it takes him a few shots to the noggin to really wake up and get in the fight. By contrast, Rashad Evans might almost be considered an anti-scrapper. Rashad likes to slip the jab, stick a quick combination, and get the hell out before anything dangerous counters his way. Call it brilliant or cowardice, but the man seems to have figured out how to win fights. Evans is significantly smaller than Girffin but miles faster, with much better hand speed, head movement, and that infamous Mike Goldberg “explosiveness.” If pressed, I would have to agree that Evans is the all around superior athlete.
Though Griffin has excellent sprawl n’ brawl in his arsenal, I find it difficult to believe that given five rounds, Evans will be unable to get Forrest down to the canvas- which is where Rashad will likely score plenty of points en route to his decision victory. It won’t be pretty, but I just can’t see this fight ending before the final bell. Evans seems too quick and cautious to get caught with any of Griffin’s strong, orthodox punches and in the land of wrestling, I still believe Rashad to be king.
Forrest has great all around skills and given a less tactical opponent, I could see him scoring a TKO or even another submission victory. But Evans and mastermind Greg Jackson no doubt have a highly detailed course already mapped out on how to dethrone Griffin, and I see such a strategy being carried out to a tee. Furthermore, without taking anything away from Forrest Griffin, I just don’t know that I am entirely sold on his caliber. I do not mean to imply that Griffin has been lucky, but….
Since 2006 Forrest has lost to Tito Ortiz, beaten Stephan Bonnar (again), lost to Keith Jardine and beaten Hector Ramirez. Forrest would then go on to defeat Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson in impressive fashion, though I have a few caveats.
“Shogun” Rua was but a mere shadow of his former self in his first bout inside the Octagon. Sloppy, out of shape and unmotivated, Shogun looked to be somewhere else that evening as Griffin outworked and tuned up the former Pride middleweight grand prix champion. Griffin then earned a very close decision over Quinton Jackson, though try as he might could not finish Rampage despite taking away most of Jackson’s movement due to punishing leg kicks. Not to mention Quinton’s poor mental state at the time, but we won’t get into all of that again.
My point is that while Forrest Griffin has shown more than economic skills and tremendous heart since debuting on The Ultimate Fighter nearly four years ago, I still feel like he lacks a definitive strength to keep him at the top of the LHW ladder. Evans via decision.
Interim Heavyweight Title Bout: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Frank Mir
Prediction: Nogueira via Submission, Rd. 4
Frank Mir has said several times that he basically cannot envision a way in which he convincingly beats Minotauro Nogueira- and I’m inclined to agree with him. Despite Mir being a very strong grappler, what are the odds he is able to succeed with a submission attempt where other, better fighters have countlessly failed? Sorry Frank, but if Fedor, Barnett or Fabricio couldn’t sub Nougeira, I don’t see you doing it any time soon.
As for stand up? Give me a break. Frank Mir’s stand up looks about as good as Wesley Snipes’ ground game. Work on it all you want Frank, but Nogueira can at least strike at an above average level…and you cannot.
Mir’s historically shoddy cardio will also likely play a part given that tonight’s play date is scheduled for 25 minutes. I don’t know that Mir will gas out completely, but I do know that fending off the relentless Nogueira will prove even more difficult come those championship rounds.
The only route to victory I conceive for Mir would be if he were able to smother Nogueira from top position for as long as possible. However that strategy might not work out so hot either since Minotauro is so content and masterful at working off his back. Any way, I see Mir getting a little weak and winded and then caught in let’s say…a rear naked choke. In round 4. That work for ya?
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva
Prediction: Silva via TKO, Rd. 3.
When I break it down in my head without rehashing their first two meetings, I conclude that Quinton Jackson has the edge in this fight all the way. Without a ring, stomps, knees on the ground and an opening 10 minute frame, I dare say that this is Jackson’s fight to lose. Rampage had Wanderlei in a bit of trouble in both of their Pride bouts, but Jackson’s takedowns and clinch game were often nullified from the unforgiving ropes. Jackson also fell victim to soccer kicks and questionable forced stand ups from the always unbiased Pride referees.
Now that Jackson gets to meet Silva inside the octagon, a whole new world opens up…or closes in rather. Jackson can shoot on Silva and thoroughly work for the takedown against the cage without fear of going through the ropes. Rampage can also defend himself on the ground without worrying about eating knees and kicks to the face. And since this is a non-title UFC bout, Silva will not get the opportunity to rain down as much continued damage as he had during the opening 10 minute round in Pride. On top of all that, Quinton Jackson is simply a much more complete fighter now than he was the last time he met Silva in 2004.
Yet it is the unanswered questions which provoke my torn pick for Wanderlei Silva. Just how mentally prepared is Rampage for this bout? And how well has Jackson’s exotic new training camp been going as far as testing and fine tuning his game? Is he over the whole three-day-fast-then-snap-and-almost-kill-people-in-a-highly-publicized-hit- and-run-TMZ mess? Is he over his breakup with Juanito Ibarra? Will fighting on the comeback trail keep Jackson motivated or pressure him into making a mistake?
Rampage has stated before that he refuses to watch his second fight with Silva for a variety of reasons, the most obvious, however, being fear. As opposed to dissecting his performance for future reference, Jackson is likely afraid that viewing his second severe Silva beating would only further screw with his head. So is Quinton Jackson ready to face his fear head on? Or will the sight of the Axe Murderer conjure up all those suppressed memories and break Rampage down from the inside out? Because there is just no way of knowing until Saturday, I have to go with Silva via TKO, round 3.
Cheick Kongo vs. Mustapha Al Turk
Prediction:Kongo via KO, Rd. 2.
Does anyone else immediately think of the lion king character Mufasa upon hearing the name Mustapha? Sorry, I just had to throw it out there. Anyhow, Mustapha Al Turk comes to the UFC after putting in long hours across the pond in Cage Rage where he was the promotion’s heavyweight champ. He’s also apparently a half decent grappler according to his stats, which boast a 2005 title from the European ADCC competition.
Al Turk seems like a decent enough prospect but I do not believe he is ready for the more seasoned, heavy handed behemoth that is Cheick Kongo. Perhaps Mustapha can get Kongo to the ground but I will go out on a short limb and say that he can’t. I will go a little bit further on that limb and assume that Turk will also not be able to stand toe-to-toe with Kongo without getting tagged like a sorority girl in a facebook photo. I’ll say Turk gets caught with something ugly some time in the second round. Kongo via KO.
C.B. Dollaway vs. Mike Massenzio
Prediction: Dollaway via split decision
How this bout made it onto the main card over Lister vs. Okami I can’t really understand. Ah well. Dollaway is a strong wrestler with a well groomed submission game. Mike Massenzio has an eerily similar background and a little more experience than Dollaway, with neither differing very much in terms of physique. Bit of a tough call here, as the contest could easily turn into a sluggish grappling match with neither fighter ever moving in for the kill. Still, even if things go the boring lay n’ pray route, I pick Dollaway to pick up more points and score the decision. Side note: I think I do know why this match is on the main card: The possibility of yet another Peruvian necktie sighting. Don’t act like you’re not thinking about it.
Dean Lister vs. Yushin Okami
Prediction: Okami via decision
I’ve always had a pretty favorable opinion of Dean Lister and honestly, would probably rather see him enjoy further success in the UFC over Yushin Okami. Regardless, I am quick to admit that Okami is the superior fighter. Albeit not the most exciting, Okami has undeniable skill in all of the vital areas: Boxing, wrestling, submission/sub defense, sprawl, the man can really hang wherever the opposition wishes to take him.
Lister will undoubtedly be looking for the takedown/submission, but even if he is able to complete part A, I doubt he will be able to execute part B. Lister could pull out a decision if he manages to smother the hell out of Okami for 15 minutes, but I see that scenario playing out more so in favor of the competition. The bottom line is that Lister has to get the fight to the ground if he is to have any chance at victory. Unfortunately, Yushin Okami is just too high up in the game to be beaten by a one trick pony. Though in all fairness Lister is very adept at that one trick. Okami via hard fought decision.
Matt Hamill vs. Reese Andy
Prediction: Hamill via TKO, Rd. 2.
I think Reese Andy, another decorated wrestler, can hang with Matt Hamill for at least the first round or so, but ultimately I see Andy getting overwhelmed and put out by a flurry of shots from the mount. Hamill via ground and pound in round 2.
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While there’s no doubt that Forrest’s record comes with a few caveats, what about Rashad’s? He got a very lucky draw against Tito, he fought a boring decision against Bisping, and he KO’ed Chuck (who is a shell of his former self much like Shogun?) I agree that it’s going to decision but I like Forrest because of the size difference as I think he will be able to control Rashad.
Also, I would be surprised if Mir can make it to the 4th round without gassing. His only chance is to pull off something quick as he’ll likely have nothing left in the tank after the first 10 minutes. Even before the accident he would gas after 7-8 minutes, can’t see anything different against someone who is virtually impossible to stop.
Agree with just about everything else, but I am hoping (thinking) that CB might be stopped with a submission early if he gets careless, much in the way the Amir fights went
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (c) vs. Frank Mir
Minatauro via TKO in the 3rd i see Mir’s cardio in this fight being the key and i think he will gas.
Forrest Griffin (c) vs. Rashad Evans
Griffin via Sub in the 4th i feel Forrest will dominate the fight with his reach and superior cardio nothing against Rashad but i don’t see him on the level of Rampage or Shogun in my opinion the only way Griffin looses the fight is if he goes toe to to toe or underestimates Evans
Quinton Jackson vs. Wanderlei Silva
Rampage decision i see a very cautious Rampage taking the safe option by using his reach and his wresting on course to a unananimous win
CB Dollaway vs. Mike Massenzio
CB will win via 1st round sub
Cheick Kongo vs. Mustapha Al-Turk
Turk will expose Kongo’s poor ground game by subbing Kongo in the 2nd.
Dean Lister vs. Yushin Okami
Okami with a decision using his reach and take downs
Antoni Hardonk vs. Mike Wessel
Hardonk KO in the 1st
Reese Andy vs. Matt Hamill
Andy via a split descion
Brad Blackburn vs. Ryo Chonan
Chonan sub in the 2nd
Pat Berry vs. Dan Evensen
Berry Ko’s Dan in the 1st
Roll on UFC 92 and hopefully some cash ching ching ching
Why do people seem to use excuse with Forrest’s wins by saying Rampage & Shogun were mentally physically not right in their fights with Forrest and yet praise Rashad’s KO over the shell of Chuck Liddell and his dubious win over The Count ?
I’m not a huge Forrest fan but why does he seem to get no credit from some for his wins over the pound for pound No 1’s at Light Heavyweight at the time of both of his wins.
Agree 100%. Also, people praise Evans because he works with Jackson, but people seem to forget that Forrest will have Randy in his corner working on a gameplan to neutralize Rashad’s wrestling
No doubt Rampage and Shogun are incredible fighters, but both just happened to be severely off their game at the time they fought Forrest. Just an unfortunate coincidence. As I said in the prediction I hope that Griffin/Evans ends in more exciting fashion, but I just have this feeling that Rashad will use his quickness to only score points when he has to, leaving Forrest on the losing end of the decision- though not exactly beaten.
Eric did u just seriously make an excuse of why Forrest is the champ?? I’ve heard of making excuses for losses but not for wins??? I will say that the Rashad Griffin fight can go either way but come on man have a little understanding that Forrest Griffin BEAT Shogun and Rampage (Shogun hasn’t fought since and Quinton literally went mad after the loss), but I guess u will continue to say that they both were just “off” for the night, please continue to underestimate Griffin that why he BEATS top LHW’s and is the champ…
Jardine beat him pretty bad and since then he has changed as a fight imo, also I’m one of those who think he actually won the Ortiz fight, getting ko by Horn back in the day isn’t losing to a nobody…
Eric I’m just bringing forth why I simply disagree with well not your stance on your prediction but saying that Forrest is champ because two of the best just had “off nights”
forest via ko (got a funny feeling)
nog via tko (will be rooting for mir)
rampage via ko (BIG RIGHT)
kongo via ko (head kick)
cb via sub (RNC)
lister via ud (ring rust?)
andy via tko (dont like hammill)
hardonk via tko (kicks)
blackburn via ko (punch)
evensen tko (punches)
You don’t like Hammill because he whipped your boys a$$ and got robbed in the decision.
haha look and see if it was a W or L next the bisping name i think u will find a W, anyway im not bothered about that right now i just can wait to see silva and rampage get it on
Seriously tho JohnBoy why don’t u like Hamill??
Rooting for Mir huh, I like Mir he is really talented, but I’ve been a fan of Big Nog’s for hell what seems like forever and I just think Big Nog is going to win, but definately Mir has the skills to try to drag this out to a decision…
because of u guys on here, i used to like hammill but all the debateing/argueing because of him an bisping has made me dislike him, plus i dont think hes as good as some people make him out to be
haha i said GUYS SSSS if i had to pin point a guy ide say kelvin, but hey its all cool, were u watching the fights 2nite fr? u at home or a bar?
JohnBoy, I will be purchasing the fights overhere at my house, have some goodfriends and ofcourse my lady with me, I will be indulging myself with food and beer/Basil Hayden Kentucky straight bourbin whiskey…
In the town I live in its hard to find a bar with knowledgable fans, without an outrageous cover charge, also respectful people..
Its just easier to have friends and fam to come over and have a good time here. I simply can’t wait for tonight cheers myfriend
So now you’re blamming me, what the hell is that about JohnBoy??? What did I ever do to you goodness fine I made u dislike Hamill I will accept that then blame me its cool
Forrest by choke 4/4
Big Nog by choke 3/4
CB by UD
Wanderlei by ko 2/4
Kongo UD
Okami by tko 3/3
Wessel by UD
Hamill by UD
Blackburn by tko 3/1
Barry by UD
These are my picks that I’m standing by them even tho i have been rethinking Hardonk v Wessel, and my pick for CB I just don’t enjoy the guy as a fighter but I do think he will win
fr702- No one can deny Griffin’s skill and I don’t think that anyone (including myself), regardless of who they picked, would exactly be surprised if Forrest won tonight. However, I cannot honestly say that had Rampage been at the top of his game, Forrest would still have walked out with the belt that night. It isn’t as if the match was one sided, hell it was close enough to have been called a draw in many peoples eyes. My opinion remains that a 100% Jackson beats a 100% Griffin 9 out of 10 times. If they rematch and Forrest wins I will change my tune.
Eric it is clear that neither you or I will change each others opionions and not to say that was even my goal, I can agree that many people could call the Page Griffin fight a draw.. My point is that there should not be excuses made on why Griffin is champ and it seems people discredit Forrest on his talent (not specifically you) I mean check it out…
Forrest Griffin 16-4-0
Notable wins are: Jackson, Shogun, Bonner 2x, Fulton, Monson
Notable losses: Jardine, Ortiz,Gumby, Severn
Shogun Rua 16-3-0
Notable wins are: Overeem 2x, Nakumura, Randleman, Arona, Nogueria (most believe Nogueria won), Jackson, Gono, Cyborg Santos
Notable losses: Griffin, Coleman, Babalu
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson 28-7-0
Notable wins are: Hendo, Liddell 2x,Lindland, Ninja, Arona, Punk Minowa,Bustamante, Randleman, Vovchanchyn.Eastman
Notable losse are: Eastman, Wanderlei 2x, Sakuraba, Matsui, Shogun, Griffin
My point here is that when broken down all three of the guys seem to be in the same leauge and deserve to fight one another and Quinton perhaps isn’t that much better than Griffin, and definately Shogun isn’t the best LHW eva that is just me doing what I do I guess cheers
fair enough, i agree with some of your points and will just have to agree to disagree about the rest. though i always appreciate the commentary!
Agree to disagree haha no worries about that, I thank you for the feed back
1) I see Rashad looking very strong and aggressive in the early rounds. But i also see Forrest surviving through those rounds. People have obviously ignored the fact that Forrest got rocked by rampage, and was still all there mentally, got back up and from there on out he looked better than ever. If he survived Rampage….he can survive Rashad Evans. And even if by some chance Rashad does win, he will get killed by either wanderlei or rampage. Oh and, alot of people also ignore the fact that Forrest trains with Randy Couture and Wanderlei Silva on a regular basis. Oh lets see, Wanderlei is only one of the best strikers in the history of mma. And Randy is only one of the best Wrestlers, and one of the best at coming up with gameplans. I just cannot see Rashad winning. Although i dont see him gassing. The dude trains with greg jackson. I think i got the name right.
2) I wouldnt underestimate Mir. Look what happened the last two times we underestimated him. He won. When he shouldnt have. Buttttt, he wont beat Nog unless he somehow subs him in the opening round. But thats doubtful. Nog is a beast, and somewhat immortal. I honestly see Nog beating Mir, then beating Lesnar, then beating Gonzaga, then i think he will finally start losing his game. Nog wins via tko 4th round.
3) I have never been a big Rampage fan, but i think its finally his time to shine. A new mentality, a new camp, new coaches and training partners. Hes twenty times better in the octagon than he ever was in Pride. I see rampage winning via KO in 2nd.
4) Kongo wins by KO. I say he gets he clinch and kills the guy with knees. Kongo is a beast, if he were a smarter fighter he could be a force to be reckoned with for yearssss to come.
5) CB via unanimous decision
id also like to add that there is no way in hell Andy beats Hammill.
Picks:
Griffin Choke 4/3
Nog TKO 4/4
Wandy TKO 2/3
Massenzio Choke 2/3
Okami UD
Chonen Sub 2/3
Hamill UD (decided to go with you on this one FR)
Al-Turk TKO 1/3
Barry TKO 1/3
Hardonk TKO 2/4
First, Dollo-Way overrated is going to get beat by Mike M. That’s fact. Forrest, I think will pull off the UD by keeping Rashad at a distance with kicks. Silva, yeah, he has Rampage’s number mentally and no matter the rules, Silva’s wins via TKO/KO, in I say round 2 or 3. Mir will gas a lot earlier than you think, I say Nog via sub in round 2. Great card though, can’t wait.
Griffin vs Evans-want griffin to win via ko but have a feeling evans might take it.
Nog vs Mir-mir wins via tko.nog is a hall of famer but his best days are behind him.
Jackson vs Silva-jackson wins via tko.won’t be surprised if jackson totally destroys silva this time.
Overall, I truly believe the two best light Heavies who have the most complete set of skills, experience, and have the capacity to beat anyone at 205 are Rampage and Wandy. Rampage deserved a rematch after the first fight and I am getting tired of how long the top fighters are off in between fights. I know Rampage had some legal issues, but He was told by Dana after the fight that he wouldn’t get the rematch right away. That is bull**** and politics at work no doubt. Dana still cries everytime he has to see footage from the two beatings or should I say 1 beating and 1 brief mugging of the Iceman. Rampage earned the right for a direct rematch since he faught to unify the pride title against Hendo at ufc75, and that was arguably the most quality,skilled and strategic mixed martial arts bout.Then Rampage does what Dana wanted and coached Tuf which he obviously didn’t want to do. It affected his training, but he knew that they had to hype up the fight and let the fans get a connection with them etc. Long story short….he said he didnt think Griffin could hang with him, and he complained alot during traing camp about how ****ty he felt with a layoff double the time of any other.BESIDES,to take a title one must beat the champ,not win on a razor thin subjective opinion.It was a close fight no doubt, you can make a case for both guys, but since it was a title fight it should have been a draw if not for Rampage. It helps to be a TUF alumni and also have Dana as a fan.
So if Wandy beats Quinton tonight in a 3 round fight(this match was why 5 round fights were invented) we already know that wandy Won’t fight his new Bff, and if Evans wins, we have a new champion who should be fighting at 185. I am starting to see why Chuck is calling for a rematch with Jardine. Jardine Has a victory over Griffin,Wandy won’t fight Griffin, so the only fighters left worthy of a title shot are machida and Rampage off of 2 losses.Chuck figures that if he keeps his hands up and trains a few weeks, He will beat Jardine who I think sucks.
So then the Iceman is next in line for a title fight again in the summer and Dana can rationalize it easy. Chuck beat jardine and if jardine won he would have got his title shot. Chuck beat Wandy who beat page and jardine and if he beats Griffin, Wandy can get his rematch….Talk about money fights for the UFC even if they are not the best fighters because most fans dont know and still think lidell is the man.If machida complains just tell him to shut up and actually try and engage an opponent instead of using the octagon as his treadmill. And then…it will be Rampage vs. Machida, and Lidell vs. Griffin……..Lidell vs. couture again after all….clever……
I know i just rambled but I think that my conspiracy makes sense for real. and who the **** cares about cb dollaway on the main card. I just hate the way that guy looks and he used to wear those gay ass sunglasses.
upset of night…..Mustapha”I just beat some guy who weighed 400lbs and looked like Mark Kerr” Al Turk with a rear naked choke over Kongo in the second round.
I know this is now after the fact, but Griffin and Wandy specifically said they would fight each other….so that whole point is moot.
Lidell will not get a title shot in the next two or three years. He knows it, and everyone else knows it too unless he re-invents his skill set. It is possible, but not likely in the least. Using tonight as a guide, Rampage is second on my list of people to get Evans. I think Machida is next (Justin or DBiz, correct me if I’m forgetting someone), then Rampage. Of course, I could be forgetting people, but c’est la vie. Griffin has fallen into the 4-7 range. A couple of wins and he might get another shot. The earliest I could see him getting a shot would be middle of 2010.
“As for stand up? Give me a break. Frank Mir’s stand up looks about as good as Wesley Snipes’ ground game. Work on it all you want Frank, but Nogueira can at least strike at an above average level…and you cannot.”
After watching last night, that line literally made me LOL.
Oh yea, the foot is in the mouth.
The last little “joke” ehh could have not been mentioned, it just isn’t funny imo, some people have different tastes yet death isn’t one of my funny bones
I’m with you there.
Interesting stance, I said it wasn’t for me and u respond with grow up
Opionions are clearly welcome here and u seem to have thought out your predictions quite well… With that being your first post here u have drawn attention to yourself by making what (people who have been here awhile and are respected for their knowledge and opionions) see as a bad joke that’s all, its not a big deal to the point that u got flamed or anything just stated that I didn’t find it funny, tell your stories express your MMA knowledge and your thoughts on fights, divisions, fighters ect but understand that some people won’t like what u have to say and there is no reason to say grow up when someone tells you or better explains to you why they don’t see eye to eye with you even with a off handed joke cheers
Noted
I think that Joe Silva does a really good job as UFC matchmaker, as far as the next LHW challenger I believe it has a lot to do with Machida v Thiago, if Wanderlei wins (which I think he will) and Machida wins his bout, I think that Machida would get the nod simply because even tho Wanderlei would have beaten top contenders he did lose to Chuck, which I don’t actually think the UFC looks down on him for that loss, it was kinda a win win for Wanderlei. But Lyoto hasn’t lost ever so quite possibly if Forrest wins tonight, and Lyoto gets the next shot, Forrest could face to undefeated chellengers in a row which would simply be rediculous.. I do agree that the LHW division is soooo stacked its super crazy to keep track of who is next in line, everyone could be considerd a contender if they are in the top ten of the LHW division, the most stacked division in the world
i predict mir will surprise alot of people tonight.
as for jackson vs silva.those pride fights were biased.jackson was about to finish him with gnp and the ref stood it up.regardless,that was 4 years ago with different rules and the octagon is alot different than a ring.jackson by tko.