Predictions For UFC 91: Couture vs. Lesnar
UFC 91 is just around the corner so let’s get right to it with some predictions.
Randy Couture vs. Brock Lesnar- Heavyweight Championship Bout
Lesnar via TKO, round 3.
I could go on and on dissecting the strengths and weaknesses between Brock and Randy. But you all know them already. Even the casual fan can easily tell that Brock, the freakish looking man-child, has superior size, strength, and perhaps even speed. Randy on the other hand is old but crafty, smaller but smarter, and has proved on several occasions that one probably shouldn’t bet against him when the odds aren’t in his favor. So let’s get real for a second, it is damn near impossible to make a solid prediction with any certainty regarding Couture vs. Lesnar. The gambling lines are all over the place, and they will probably continue to fluctuate until the last minute. But I have to choose because that’s what judgmental people like me do, and I choose Lesnar.
Lesnar will be coming into the cage somewhere around 275-280lbs. Randy on the other hand will be lucky to tip the scales at 225lbs in wet clothes. You see where I’m going with this? Sure Couture is a master technician but he hasn’t fought in a year and a half, has looked fairly gaunt and weathered in photos these past few months, and really cannot train for Brock the way Brock can for Randy. There simply isn’t anyone who can that closely mimic Brock Lesnar’s physical attributes, I just don’t think that person exists. I’m sure Randy got as close as possible in terms of training partners, but he will nonetheless run into something he has not seen before when he meets Brock on Saturday night.
Lesnar, on the other hand, already has a solid wrestling base and has only gotten sharper with respect to submission defense and controlling positions. I doubt Randy will be able to put Brock in any trouble that Lesnar will not be able to either defend technically, or simply overpower. Clinching, using the fence, setting up trips, and that famous dirty boxing are all great weapons in Randy’s arsenal, but will that be enough against someone who can throw you around like a rag doll before the first knee even lands?
With respect to stand up, I say Couture has a sizeable advantage simply because he has been honing his striking game for so much longer. But here is what stops me from predicting a Couture KO- It seems much more likely that Randy will be on the defensive end of the striking game for the majority of the stand up, not the offensive. I do not think he will have enough power in any counter shots to seriously damage Lesnar’s block-like dome piece. Indeed, Couture uses great head movement and can definitely avoid Lesnar’s power, but will he be able to mount any threatening combinations of his own? I doubt it.
I would certainly enjoy a Couture victory on Saturday night as Randy has always played the underdog role very well, but I just don’t see it given the variables on the table. “The Natural” might have a great strategy and game plan in store for Brock Lesnar, but as Mike Tyson famously said “Everybody has a plan…until they get hit.”
Kenny Florian vs. Joe Stevenson
Florian via unanimous decision
Joe Stevenson is very hungry and fired up since his brutal loss to BJ Penn, but I just don’t know that Florian is the appropriate rebound guy. Florian is patient, smart, and extremely tactical. He doesn’t really let his hands and feet go until he absolutely has to, but that might not matter much as this bout looks to be one that goes to the ground awfully quickly. I suspect Stevenson shoots for the takedown first and ends up defending Kenny’s submissions from the guard for a good while. I don’t know that Florian will be able to secure a sub or land enough ground and pound due to Stevenson’s strong base and submission acumen, but it should be more than enough to grant him the unanimous decision.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Josh Hendricks
Gonzaga via TKO, round 1.
Like most of you, I haven’t a clue about this Josh Hendricks kid. I know that he is a promotional journeyman who looks a bit soft from his available photos. His record doesn’t tell me anything impressive, though you might recognize a couple of his losses to former UFC veterans Sam Hoger and Travis Wiuff. So I have to go with the guy whose fights I have actually seen, and that’s Gonzaga. I think Gonzaga will somehow get this fight to the ground where he looks to pound the crap out of Josh Hendricks face.
Nate Quarry vs. Demian Maia
Quarry via split decision
My underdog pick for the night, as I always try to have at least one. In general Demian Maia should be able to win this fight, so long as he continues to shoot and keep Quarry on the defensive. If Quarry gets suckered into staying on the ground with Maia for too long, it will only be a matter of time before he gets caught in any number of the Brazilian’s highlight reel submissions. But Quarry is no dummy and will likely sprawl and brawl as much as humanly possible to keep this fight on his feet, where he has a definitive striking advantage. I also feel like Quarry is all shades of eager to get back into the cage and prove something to the fans after that sad Kalib Starnes fiasco. But let’s not start rehashing that affair.
Dustin Hazelett vs. Tamdan McCrory
Hazelett via unanimous decision
I was almost ready to pick Tamdan McCroy in this one because he looked very strong in his last showing against Luke Cummo, and sports a very sizeable height and reach advantage that poses problems for anyone. But Dustin “McLovin” Hazelett has really started to hone his skills as a complete mixed martial artist, and I think he can control McCroy long enough to secure the decision victory. Though if McCrory isn’t careful enough he could get one of his long limbs caught in a submission, but all in all I see him staying away from any real danger and simply losing on points.
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DON’T AGREE WITH THE FLORIAN/STEVENSON FIGHT… I THINK STEVENSON WILL SUBMITT KEN FLO
Stevenson by sub
Maia by sub (Quarry could definately win this i just think Maia will)
GG by ko
Hazlett by ud
i can see both sides of Randy v Brock, I have learned to not count out Couture, and yes Brock is huge and fast strong ect. we still dont know much about his all around game then again he could come in and just ko Randy soo im not going to pick just yet im just planning on watch and enjoying that match
Grugel by sub
dos Anjos by ud
Robinson ud
to quote Amir…. Matt Brown by hmmmm Murder
I think Randy wins even with the size difference . Brock does have the frame to win with ,but it will come down to experience and thats something brock lacks .If they get to the ground and Randy has a burst of speed to get an arm or leg in both hands ….its over . If we want to talk about randy being an under dog , that happens when he faces Nog and Mir . If either one of them were fighting instead of Brock then I’d say it was over for him .lesnar has only beaten herring in the UFC …. ……enough said .
i see kenny by split, and i think maia is a sleeper at 185 and he submits quarry in the 2nd round
I have bet against couture before and been wrong but I just dont think he has the physical skills to deal with lesnar. One thing is for sure, I won’t place a dime on the main event!
IM WITH YOU FR702 I CAN’T PICK A WINNER FOR RANDY/LESNAR… WHEN YOU THINK HE HAS NO CHANCE HE WINS… SO I JUST NEED TO SEE HOW HE TOMORROW WALKING OUT TO THE CAGE… I MEAN I WOULD LIKE TO SEE RANDY WIN… BUT MAN BROCK IS JUST A BEAST…
My predictions are : Couture by decision,Stevenson KO,Gonzaga by sub,Demian by sub and dustin by decision…
YZ, Randy’s demeanor will show alot imo come fight day…. plus im still upset for the past 400 days or soo of all his bs, Lesnar is getting better and everything and he is a crazy man~child beast that most wont know what to make of him in the cage.. lets be honest Mir held onto that leg for dear life and Brock did tap but ya know.. We shall see tomorrow i wont be suprised either way, unless its sooooo dominant or like Lesnar gets a gogo on Randy, im soley looking to be entertained in this fight and i dont think i will be let down
the Randy/Brock fight I think Brock will win, but mostly I’m just going to watch and enjoy. I’m going to try really hard to not pull for someone in this fight, that way I can be happy regardless of the winner.
I can agree with Florian/Stevenson and GG/Hendricks, though Hendricks trains with Randy. I think Maia will sub Quarry, but I would like to see Quarry KO Maia. I also think that McLovin will get a sub win.
McLovin is such a great nickname
HAS THAT ALWAYS BEEN HIS NICKNAME OR JUST AFTER SUPERBAD… CUZ I NEVER NOTICED LOL THATS AWESOME
I think after superbad.
I can’t pick a winner for the main event, like FR702 said, just gonna sit back and enjoy.
Have the weigh-ins happened yet? When are they?
the only reason why brock has a chance is that Randy has a years worth of rust. Did anyone see brock lose to Mir? Did anyone see Brock get a decision victory over Heath Herring who perma-turtled? he coundnt even finish the fight with a guy turtling for 3 minutes!
I hope to see Cotoure trip the charging rhino Brock in round 1 and slip in a toe-hold for the victory lol. Brock is waaay too overrated. Basically a more aggressive Giant Silva IMO, but what do i know.
I’m also pickin Kenflo. The only person that can beat Kenflo in that division is Penn.
randy via flying roundhouse kick.
Good card i know some did doubt this but with Hazelett vs McCrory bumped up this looks a good ‘un.
I’m going with -
Lesnar via TKO in the 3rd (but i will be pulling for Randy)
Ken Flo via a Split
Gonzaga via TKO in the 2nd
Quarry with a decision over Maia
And i will just enjoy Hazelett vs McCrory but if i have to pick i’ll go with Hazelett decision
I am gonna be the loner here and take Hendricks… and say you are all dumb for not thinking that hendricks can’t do to gg exactly what randy did… Control him damage his face and **** him up
My predictions are as follows:
DBiz over beer – undercard down and pound, nuff said
DBiz over boneless wings – wings take a fierce beating from my molars
Waitress over DBiz – All the ogling and winking won’t do any good against that booty
DBiz over nachos – Nachos have good ground game, but the chip defense is too weak to prevent a submission
DBiz over PPV – Bar tab = PPV cost, plus nice asses around and enjoying the fights
nice haha ^
I see Kenflo striking being too much for Joe as in the BJ fight, i know that is quite the comparison but Joe has no reach and Ken has great strikes and will in my opinion circle and nail Joe from the outside until he pounces and finishes him. I really dont see this being close even.
nice DBiz
Newfie they are @ 4pm pacific i believe
sp00ner4321, Hendricks is a good pick and with his training with Couture he has a good game plan forsure, cheers
G, if only that were plausable great idea tho
I THINK I’LL BE GOING FOR DBIZ ON ALL THOSE BUT I WOULD GIVE THE WAITRESS A 10-8 ROUND SHE’LL BE IN TOTAL CONTROL… LOL
AGAIN I THINK’LL YOU’LL BE TOTAL DOMINTANT IN ROUND 1 THAT IN ROUND 5 I THINK I MIGHT HAVE TO GO WITH PV… ONLY BECAUSE THE BAR TAB WILL BE MORE THE THE COST OF PV… AND YOU MIGHT GO TO SLEEP.
DBiz:
You may submit the nachos, but they will deal some damage and your colon will be on medical suspension from coming over for at least three days or until medically cleared.
Waitress over you (besides a dirty dream come true) is the Lock of the Century.
You over PPV cost is a pretty good prediction, especially since the Suckeyes play at noon.
As far as Lesnar/Randy goes I think this is a terrible match-up for Couture, even though Couture is essentially the Brett Farve of MMA and always finds a way to win, I do not see this ending well for him. The only way he wins is by getting lesnar on his back and that will be hard to do. The only guy I’ve ever seen able to negate Brock’s strength in wrestling was Wes Hand(NCAA/Big Ten tourney) and Hand had 30 lbs on Couture. I know this isn’t a wrestling match but look at where Couture is best…the clinch, takedowns, and on the ground he is best at G&P. His only two submission wins were off an anaconda choke (lesnar doesn’t have a neck so good luck) and and a rear naked choke, both are easy chokes for wrestlers to learn. Not to mention both Herring and Mir have ALOT better of a chin than Couture and that’s the only reason Mir survived to hit that kneebar. Randy doesn’t have the chin to take a few hits from those bowling balls Lesnar calls hands so he has to close the gap and try to control the clinch…good luck. That being said Lesnar SHOULD win but never ever count Couture out.
Honestly, Stevenson vs. Florian could be a problem match. I mean that because Stevenson doesn’t have the Muay Thai to stand w/ KenFlo, so obviously he will take KenFlo to the ground where both of their BJJ expertise may actually negate each other. This may end up like a Hamill- Bisping fight in that Stevenson will get his takedowns and be on top but KenFlo’s BJJ will keep him from truly opening up so there may be no clear winner at all. I see this being an extremely razor thin split decision win for KenFlo.
As for the rest? Gonzaga by TKO, Maia by decision, and Hazlett by a razor thin decision.
Yep, I’d like to see Randy win but sh*t Brock is a corn fed beast.I’d love to see it go at least 3 rounds.
But if Brook gets the belt on Sat., than who do you think could take it away?
Brock is going to lose. Randy’s game plan should be to draw Brock out into the DEEP waters of the 4th and 5th round where brock WILL be DEAD TIRED. We know Randy can go the distance and I am willing to bet that Brock can not. If you watched the “fight science” episode with old man couture on it you would of seen Randy performing a choke hold for as long as he could as HARD as he could after which they tested his lactic acid levels. The scientists and doctors were ASTOUNDED to find out that Randys lactic acid levels went DOWN instead of up like any other human, leading the scientists from STANFORD to conclude that Randy was not human. Brock is GOING TO LOSE.
good stuff DBiz
you got it all figured out d-biz…im right there with ya
hope randy wins…but I doubt he will, its just not a good matchup for him…possibly the worst matchup hes ever had.
Jayo chokes are only good when you are in position to use them and in order to draw that fight into the 4 and 5 rounds he has to be able to withstand a few Home Run shots and when 4 of your 8 losses come from KO’s in your career you can be in trouble. Also Lesnar may not have fought a 5 round fight before but his camp will have him extremely well conditioned so Randy better not go in hoping Brock gases…
Mommie I think the obvious answer would be someone like Big Nog because his chin is formed from the same armor on the M1 Abrams tank and on the ground he could still trap lesnar. I would have also put Werdum here but apparently he is gone. Also give Velasquez more time to mature and he’d make a formidable opponent based in his skill set.
I might be tempted to put my money on Mir, Chris…but I’m a student of history.
LESNAR VIA DECISION
FLORIAN VIA SUB OR TKO
QUARRY VIA TKO
HAZELETT VIA SUB
you know I was thinking that too but I really think if that fight was not stopped for the illegal blow then Mir is done w/n a second or two. I wouldn’t say Mir couldn’t do it again other than that fight he looks like he’s starting to be the Mir of old.
SHAPIRO, PUT IT THIS WAY BUD, IF YOU ARE BETTING AGAINST COUTURE YOU’VE ALREADY LOST, THE MAN HAS WAY TOO MUCH EXPERIENCE AND BROCK CAN’T DO IT ON STRENGTH AND SIZE ALONE, HES ACTUALLY GONNA HAVE TO FIGHT AT SOME POINT DURING THE MATCH. WHO HAS HE BEAT, HEATH HERRING, WHO HASN’T BEAT HEATH HERRING ANYWAY. I BELIEVE THAT GONZAGA COULD BEAT LESNAR, AS WELL AS VELASQUEZ TOO.
SO JUST REMEMBER, THE TITANIC WAS UNSINKABLE TOO AND WE ALL KNOW HOW THAT WORKED OUT.
If Randy loses this fight no one will care about the Fedor fight , it probably wouldnt even happen
Round one Couture dives for Lesnar’s ankle and holds on like a Mississippi leg hound and pulls off a Mir special.
del-your titanic analogy is spot on…for Randy that is. Lesnar has obviously already sunk in his bout with Mir and has naturally lost any “unbreakable” status. However Couture seems to have this odd aura around him which persuades so many to think that he just cannot be beaten by a fighter who is as one dimensional as Brock. Lest we forget that all Chuck Liddell needed on two separate occasions was a sprawl and a strong, well timed shot. One of which knocked Couture right into retirement-to the point where he had to come back as a HW just to avoid another KO. I can definitely conceive Couture eeking out a decision but I am taking the risk and flat out betting against him on this one. I can only hope he proves many of us wrong yet again, but something tells me that Slyvia and Gonzaga will seem like walks in the park once Randy starts eating heavy Lesnar leather.
Zac nailed it.Couture is just too experienced and Lesnar don’t know how to finish.
Lesnar is definitely the future though.
Either way,should be entertaining.
I DON’T AGREE WITH ANYTHING ERIC SHAPIRO SAYS… BUT KRIS ON THE OTHER HAND… KRIS ALWAYS HAS BACK UP…
does anyone know if the weigh ins will air on spike? and what time
4pm pacific, and i dunno
yzfoxracing-what does that even mean?
Eric, if you watch that Herring fight, the big punch was SLOOOOOW coming. I don’t see Randy sitting in one place to eat that punch. And that ridiculous headfirst charge? Either an uppercut KOs him or “ole!” and leg sub. Brock was ridiculous in that fight…and I don’t mean good.
Other than that punch, Brock was decidedly underwhelming. Side control for two minutes before throwing a single knee? That should have been stood up several times.
So what did we have? A mediocre, one dimensional giant, who can’t finish off a bad opponent. (begin sarcasm) Christ, I so want to hop on that bandwagon. (end sarcasm) If Lesnar hasn’t gotten a lot better in all facets since then, I think there’s a good chance he gets Kimboed in the first minute.
I’M WITH YOU DBIZ… IT ALMOST LOOKED LIKE BROCK TRIED SPEERING HERRING LIKE THE OLD WCW WESTLEING DAYS LIKE GOLDBERG WOULD DO LOL
Shane- they usually air live on espnnews.
Eric- I agree with you about Couture vs. Lesnar. it’s also just something I’d like to point out that randy has that “aura” but yet he still he hasn’t put up more than a two fight win streak since oh ‘00-’01. Not too mention he’s only 16-8(as opposed to Mir 11-3, Big Nog 31-4-1, Fedor- do I even have to say it… 29-1) so his win percentage is not phenomenal either. So while I like Randy as a fighter he’s not the P4P king or even the Hwt. King by a long shot. Anyone remember Barnett and Couture or Ricco vs. Couture? I guess I’m alone in my thinking.
SO WHEN DOES A RECORD TELL YOU WHOS BETTER… COME ON NOW YOU JUST GO OFF RECORDS THATS JUST STUPID
Well lets be honest he beat Tim Sylvia and Gabriel Gonzaga…ok that’s nice… Where’s Sylvia now? Gonzaga is a good but not great Heavyweight(before the Cro Cop win he was about to be booted from the UFC). The only reason I bring up records is because this aura of invincibility for Couture is unfounded. At heavyweight against big wrestlers he’s been mauled.
Yeah, and Fedor hasn’t had a real fight since 05 (Cro Cop). It could easily be argued that his last real fight was in 04 against Nog. He’s p4p the best…what? The best at avoiding competition to keep his record intact?
How many fights against TOP heavyweights has Fedor had? Looks to me like AA is going to be his first since big Nog.
A handful of his 29 wins cited weren’t even against his own weight class. Lindland? He’s a natural 185er. Great win there. Babalu? Decent (and that’s being charitable) at 205 at the heaviest…and he’s not that great there.
Yeah, let’s throw Anderson Silva against a bunch of 155ers and proclaim him the best ever because he doesn’t lose….
Fedor doesn’t want to fight the best. He doesn’t. He’ll lie and say he does…then he goes and fights Hong-Man Choi (in his 2nd MMA fight). Fedor doesn’t want to fight the best. He wants to talk a good game, fight occasionally, and make the nuthuggers proclaim him best ever.
Why hasn’t Fedor fought Randy? That’s all on Fedor. Why won’t he sign with the most dominant MMA promotion in the world…and fight more than twice a year (hint, he hasn’t since 05)? Because he’s scared to put up or shut up, and no one else is willing to see it.
I predict a “hand injury” after the AA fight. He needs 6-8 months off to recover.
haha I couldn’t agree more with you about Fedor to be honest! The issue has always been the money with Fedor he knows he gets paid better by anyone but the UFC. I still do not think he is the P4P best I believe that’s Anderson hands down end of story. In the UFC he wouldn’t get to cherry pick favorable match-ups and what not, he’d have to fight whoever Joe Silva decides and that can be deadly(ask Werdum about that). I think he is the best heavyweight skill wise by far but I really want to see him fight guys like Barnett, AA, Mir, and Couture. I think it’s about time. Like I said though it’s ALL money to him, he’s running his own gyms in Russia, and even competing in the world combat SAMBO championships again just to do it. If we see him it’ll be on his own terms with the old M-1 group because they technically still own his official contract.
thats as close to the truth as it has ever been spoken DBiz,
i cant wait till randy just totally dominates lesnar your all gonna see it lesnar is getting this shot to early and it will show when randy dominates him ….if anyone even thinks brock has a chance to beat randy im surprised because ya brock “dominated heath” if you call getting one big hit in a fight and then holding someone down and kneeing them for 15 minutes dominating then yes i would agree brock “dominated” heath herring…but in reality randy will end this fight by tiring brock and frustrating him into making mistakes….i cant believe people still doubt the natural after he dominated gonzaga and sylvia …two huge hw’s
Randy stronger than Brock? WTF?
Randy heel kicks lesnar in the kneecap breaking his knee and making him fall down 30 seconds into the fight/ground and pounds for the win. Randy is a “kung-fu-genius” he knows this is what he has to do to win.
Seriously tho.. Randy is such a smart fighter.. we is a true example of a man who fights the fighter he is fighting, instead of just fighting his own style.. I am truly interested to see what game plan he comes up with for this fight.
Vinz,
I too am really interested in what his game plan is.
I don’t have a horse to pull for in the main event, I do have an issue though…The bridging in Tim vs Randy (Round one) makes me question how unbeatable Randy is tonight.That would cause incredible pain in L5. And if it was blocked via painkillers then fatigue…Your leg can lose feeling from L5. Doing that makes me wonder if he knew about Tim’s back problems…If he did and he couldn’t finish the fight then Randy is in trouble…
Randy is a great technician but Brock is hardly a novice at this sport even with just 3 fights. Brock has been training for nearly 3 years now. He’s got the attributes and a heady coach. The vast difference in knowledge is not there. True Randy might have an Ace up his sleeve but the percentages are against him and this will more than likely look like an open weight challenge match Where when all other factors are close the Bigger man wins.
Gonzaga by Submission (Kimura) round two
And Stevenson hurts Florian with a TKO via Ground and Pound in the third.Maia gets a triangle in round one and Dustin gets a split decision
Eric – I agree with your Couture/Lesnar analysis. The line you said about Brock being able to prepare for a “Couture-type” fighter easier than Randy can prepare for a “Lesnar-type” fighter is spot on. There aren’t a lot of freakishly strong wrestlers, who are in top shape (pushing 290 lbs, might I add), that Randy can just spar with. There ARE many options for Brock to train with, and I think that will be the distinct advantage in this particular fight.
couture win TKO ROUND 2!
Randy would beat Fedor,but it’ll never happen.Fedor don’t want any part of that.Did you watch the Fedor vs Lindland fight?Lindland split him open with the first swat and then Fedor had to resort to cheating-by grabbing the ropes to get the upper hand- or he would of lost that fight.And Lindland is a middleweight.
spoiler alert: Couture schools Lesnar