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UFC 79 Betting Preview

Bet on MMA at BodogUFC 79 has all the big matchups to be a great betting night. In this piece I’ll go over the two biggest fights, and give you what I feel is the best way to approach betting on them.

Chuck Liddell (-105) vs. Wanderlei Silva (-125)

The fight that everyone has been waiting anxiously for is finally here. Liddell comes into this fight off of two straight losses to Keith Jardine and Quinton Jackson. It’s safe to say that lately Chuck really hasn’t looked like the Chuck were used to seeing. Along with Liddell, Wanderlei Silva has also lost his last two bouts. Silva dropped fights to both Dan Henderson and Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic.

This fight doesn’t really fit any of the criteria which would call for me to make a bet on it. The odds are pretty even, and Liddell is sure to draw more casual money from non-fight fans. The public opinion on this battle is really pretty even, and its hard to gauge where the value lies. Recent money has been coming in 5-to-1 on Silva creating some value in a bet on Liddell over the even opening lines. If I had a gun to my head, I’d take Chuck in this fight.

Georges St. Pierre (-200) vs. Matt Hughes (+160)

This is the matchup that really presents some great value for bettors. GSP obviously is a great fighter and should be the favorite in this fight. However, I don’t think GSP should really be favored by so much in this fight. Matt Hughes is 4-1 in his past five fights with big wins over BJ Penn, Royce Gracie and Chris Lytle.

There has been a lot of talk on the MMA websites and forums about GSP winning this fight very easily. According to the odds set on this fight (Hughes -175), the odds makers are giving Hughes a 36% chance to win. In my mind, I think Hughes has at least a 40-45% chance of winning this fight, so at +175 and higher Matt Hughes is a great value bet. Money has been coming in more heavily on Hughes of late pushing the lines closer and that trend will likely continue in the coming week leading up to their fight.

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