Forecasting the UFC’s pay-per-view revenue for the rest of the year is much more of an art than a science given the limited information that is available. It is believed that the company posted roughly 5,220,000 buys last year. Based on a 35 percent increase in buys through June 30 as compared to the same period last year (roughly 1,745,000), the company has a total of about 2,355,750 buys for it’s first four domestic pay-per-view events this year. Subtracting 2,355,750 from last year’s total of 5,220,000, the company needs 2,864,250 more buys this year to keep pace with last year. That averages out to 477,375 buys per show for the rest of the year.In looking ahead at the rest of the UFC’s pay-per-view slate, it looks as if the company will end the year flat to slightly down in total buys (excluding UFC 73). However, in light of the amazing growth shown last year, and a rash of upsets that have plagued the company this year, merely keeping pace with last year’s numbers rather than exceeding them is a positive sign for business going forward. Listed below are available estimated buy rates for the first four events of the year, as well my own projections regarding the remaining events. Obviously this is a highly speculative endeavor. It is merely meant to provide a rough forecast of how the rest of the year might shape up for the company.

These numbers are based on a couple of key assumptions. First, we know that the pay-per-view industry estimate places the 2/3 show at 350,000-400,000 buys. It is widely assumed that this number represents the floor for UFC shows in the current environment given its relatively weak lineup. Second, for purposes of this forecast it is assumed that the 5/21 show did around one million buys based on statements made by Dana White to that effect. However, it should be noted that Dave Meltzer has reported that Quinton Jackson was given a figure closer to 625,000 as the basis for his pay-per-view bonus. The one million buy projection for 5/21 is further supported by the fact that using that number, the math works out to around 600,000 buys for the 3/3 event which is consistent with the early estimates of 550,000. Without further ado, the projected pay-per-view numbers for 2007:

• 2/3 – Silva v. Lutter – 375,000 – This number is believed to represent the minimum number of buys a UFC event will generate in the current environment, however, it could be argued that this show also featured the heavily hyped debuts of Quinton Jackson and Mirko Cro Cop in addition to the weak main event of Silva-Lutter.
• 3/3 – Sylvia v. Couture – 605,750 – Based on the assumption that the 5/21 show did a million buys and that the 4/7 show did 375,000.
• 4/7 – St. Pierre v. Serra – 375,000 – Assuming that this show performed around the level of the 2/3 show.
• 5/21 – Liddell v. Jackson – 1,000,000 – Explained above. Given the unprecedented push on ESPN, I can’t imagine this event didn’t top one million buys.
• 6/16 – Franklin v. Okami – OMITTED – This show is not included in the forecast because there is no concrete way to estimate this buy rate due to the unique circumstances of the broadcast, i.e. international event, broadcast live at 3PM eastern in the US with no prime time replay, and a weaker than usual card. Exclusion also allows for an even year-to-year comparison (10 events to 10 events). The show was also excluded from the S&P report.
• 7/7 – Ortiz v. Evans – 400,000 – This is a conservative projection based on an assumed 375,000 buy floor and Ortiz’s drawing power. Ortiz drew 425,000 last year before the big spike in buys against Forrest Griffin, however, the case could be made that he’s damaged goods coming off his loss to Chuck in December. Given Ortiz’s name recognition and the strength of the under card with two title fights, I think we can safely project at least 400,000 buys.
• 8/25 – Couture v. Gonzaga – 600,000 – This is also a very conservative projection in my view. It is based on the estimated buy rate of Couture-Sylvia. A strong case can be made that this show probably did better, perhaps significantly better, thanks to the buzz surrounding Randy coming off the 3/3 show and the rub of Gonzaga knocking out Cro Cop on a highly rated television broadcast.
• 9/22 – Liddell v. Jardine – 400,000 – This is also on the low end of what I would expect in the estimated range. Liddell drew 500,000 last year against Sobral but has since lost the title to Quinton Jackson. This show also benefits from a strong co-main in Griffin-Rua. There are early rumored estimates of 625,000 buys leaking out, which if true would be an excellent sign for business for the rest of the year.
• 10/20 – Franklin v. Silva – 375,000 – They did 300,000 last year in the first meeting. With Silva coming off two finishes you would expect them to do a little better here at worst.
• 11/17 – Ortiz v. Evans II (?) – 375,000 – This show still has no official main event, but Ortiz-Evans II is rumored.
• 12/29 – Hughes v. Serra – 600,000 – Hughes drew 500,000 against GSP and 400,000 against BJ Penn last fall. This show should also benefit from what is by all reports a great season of TUF that builds the fight nicely.
• Total Projected Buys for 2007 – 5,105,750

This forecast shows the UFC coming up 114,250 buys short of last year, however, it is a very conservative forecast and it is easy to envision a scenario in which the UFC not only meets but exceeds last years total number of buys. It’s also interesting to consider the money fights that were wiped off the table this year by upsets. A conservative estimate is probably an extra 100,000 buys for the 8/25 show with Couture-Cro Cop. Dana White had publicly project the 12/29 show to be the biggest in the company’s history with Liddell v. Silva. The delay of Hughes v. GSP III also cost the company some money at least in the short term.

For comparison ’06’s estimated numbers:

• 2/4 – Couture v. Liddell III – 400,000
• 3/4 – Frankling v. Loiseau – 300,000
• 4/15 – Ortiz v. Griffin – 425,000
• 5/27 – Hughes v. Gracie – 620,000
• 7/8 – Ortiz v. Shamrock – 775,000
• 8/26 – Liddell v. Sobral II – 500,000
• 9/23 – Hughes v. Penn – 400,000
• 10/14 – Franklin v. Silva – 300,000
• 11/18 – Hughes v. St. Pierre – 500,000
• 12/30 – Liddell v. Ortiz II – 1,000,000
• Total Estimated Buys for 2006 – 5,220,000