Predictions For Ultimate Fight Night 19
Tomorrow night Oklahoma City is UFC Ultimate Fight Night 19, headlined by Nate Diaz vs. Melvin Guillard. There are certainly some interesting match ups, and a few that on paper seem a bit one sided. I decided I would go on the record with my official predictions for the event, and so have some of the other staff here at MMAFrenzy.
Nate Diaz vs. Melvin Guillard Prediction:
Nate Diaz via submission, Round 1.
Guillard is athletic, explosive, and has KO power. Diaz really is the opposite, but I think Diaz still has the better skill set and should take this one. Diaz should be able to use his reach to stay away from Guillard’s power until he decides to step in and take this fight to the ground, where he is (on paper) the better equipped fighter. Guillard has also shown a past weakness to submissions, and I think that will be the deciding factor.
Gray Maynard vs. Roger Huerta Prediction:
Gray Maynard via Unanimous Decision
Huerta is coming off of a thirteen month layoff, so I expect ring rust a plenty. Maynard on the other hand has been active, against good competition. In Huerta’s bout against Clay Guida in 2007, Guida was able to out wrestle him and control the action for most of the bout, before Huerta managed to land a shot that rocked Guida and led to the eventual submission victory. Gray Maynard is a better wrestler than Guida, and has better stand up than Guida. I expect Maynard to be able to take the fight to the ground and control Huerta there however he sees fit, and Maynard’s striking is clean enough to stay out of trouble on the feet. Maynard will therefore grind out another decision victory over another tough opponent.
Carlos Condit vs. Jake Ellenberger Prediction:
Carlos Condit via Submission in round 2
Condit is game fighter with slick submissions, and capable stand up. Ellenberger comes from a wrestling background but favors his adept striking game for defeating his opponents. Both men have done the rounds with lower tiered promotions, and this is a tough bout to call. However I think the fact that Condit has already spent sometime under the bright lights of the UFC, combined with his experience defeating the WEC belt will be enough to put him over the top. Ellenberger is taking this fight on short notice, and is making his UFC debut, and I think will cave to the pressure and make a mistake that Condit will capitalize on in the second round. Ellenberger could still make an impact in the division, however, even if he does lose to Condit.
Tim Credeur vs. Nate Quarry Prediction:
Nate Quarry via TKO round 1
Credeur is a game fighter, but Quarry’s skills are just a level above Credeur’s. Quarry has solid punching power and crisp striking, as well as decent take down defense. I expect Credeur to want to take this fight to the ground and go for a submission, where he is a much more dangerous fighter than he is standing. However, Quarry has faced more skilled grapplers in Pete Sell and Jason MacDonald and come out on top and I expect the same out of him against Credeur.
PRELIMINARY BOUTS Predictions:
- Steve Cantwell def. Brian Stann via submission in round 1
- Mike Pyle def. Chris Wilson via submission in round 2
- C.B. Dollaway def. Jay Silva via submission in round 1
- Sam Stout def. Phillipe Nover via unanimous decision
- Jeremy Stephens def. Justin Buchholz via TKO in round 3
- Brock Larson def. Mike Pierce via submission in round 2
- Ryan Jensen def. Steve Steinbeiss via submission in round 2
KRIS KARKOSKI’s UFN 19 QUICK PREDICTIONS
- Nate Diaz def. Melvin Guillard via submission — Round 2
- Gray Maynard def. Roger Huerta via unanimous decision
- Carlos Condit def. Jake Ellenberger via submission — Round 1
- Nate Quarry def. Tim Credeur via TKO – Round 2
- Steve Cantwell . Brian Stann via submission — Round 2
- Mike Pyle def. Chris Wilson via submission — Round 3
- Jay Silva def. C.B. Dollaway via TKO — Round 2
- Sam Stout def. Phillipe Nover via unanimous decision
- Jeremy Stephens def. Justin Buchholz via unanimous decision
- Brock Larson def. Mike Pierce via submission — Round 1
- Steven Steinbeiss def. Ryan Jensen via submission — Round 2
Stop back tomorrow for live UFC Fight Night 19 coverage, as well as MMAFrenzy.com’s recap of the first episode of The Ultimate Fighter 10, which debuts immediately after UFN 19.
Tags: Brian Stann, Brock Larson, Carlos Condit, CB Dollaway, Chris Wilson, Gray Maynard, Jake Ellenberger, Jay Silva, Jeremy Stephens, justin buchholz, Melvin Guillard, Mike Pierce, Mike Pyle, Nate Diaz, Nate Quarry, Phillipe Nover, Roger Huerta, Ryan Jensen, Sam Stout, steve cantwell, Steve Steinbeiss, Tim Credeur
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-I think that Melvin Guillard has matured and become a lot better overall. The dude already has killer ko power but has always been a reckless brawiling approach, but i feel that he has sort of gotten rid of that just a little bit and seems to want to become a more well rounded tachnical fighter which would be better for a guy as young and with the amount of potential that he has. Nate Diaz said in a recent pre-fight interview that “i’ve been waiting for someone to want to fight with me, have a good scrap and put on a stand-up show”….i hope he realizes that Melvin can knock him out with one punch and not even blink, not that Melvin is the best striker out there it’s just that i don’t feel Diaz has good stand-up at all and i don’t feel that he can take a big punch. Diaz’s best bet is to take the fight to the ground and get sub because Guillard has been notorious for not having the best ground game and not having any sub defense. I thnk that this will be Diaz’s 3rd loss in a row and Melvin will take this fight, he’s more agile,athletic,stronger and he seems more grounded and focused than Diaz who is always kinda cocky and overconfident before fights.
Guillard via t(ko) in the 1st or 2nd
-I think that most people have just assumed that Huerta is coming into this fight with Maynard with not a care in the world just to get beat up. I know that this is his last fight on his contract but Huerta has always been a dude who is very passionate in his fights and takes every opponent seriously. He looks to be taking this fight serious like i expected. Huerta has better overall striking and i feel is more well rounded than Maynard. Although Maynard is a fantastic wrestler, he also has improved his stand-up but it’s still not at the level that most Maynard fans say it is. Maynad can out muscle Huerta and decision or gNp Huerta but Huerta has sub skills, something that Maynard does not and Huerta has sick leg kicks. Maynard can win if he takes the fight to the ground, but i feel that Huerta has the advantage on the stand-up and possibly in the subs for sure, Maynard is bigger so that could play a factor in this fight, but i’m going with the Matador, he’s more well rounded, he can take a punch and still threaten and since they both have great cardio i’m expecting a war, but Huerta has more heart IMO so i’m picking Huerta to win.
huerta via sub or decision.
Guillard-Diaz: Diaz via sub, or Guillard via t(ko)
Maynard-Huerta: Huerta via decision or t(ko)
Condit-Ellenberger-Condit via sub or tko
Cantwell-Stann: Stann via t(ko)
Dolloway-Silva: Silva via decision
Creudeur-Quarry:-Quarry via t(ko)
Larson-Pierce: Larson via tko or sub
I’m rooting for Guillard, but he’s been vulnerable to subs in the past and Diaz is above average on the ground. Hopefully he proves me wrong.
Yeah I’m rooting for Guillard, and actually put 10 bucks on him in my fantasy wagers on MMAPlayground. Put 10 on Ellenberger, too. He impressed me when I was researching him for these picks.
you guys suck dollaway is a great guy…..people hate him for his voice i think there are plenty of other fighters who have worse voices…but even though come on guys just because this guy silva has the last name silva doesnt mean he is good…i mean come on the guy looks like freaking sean paul….since when does reggae singer sean paul beat a proffesional mma fighter…cb by tko rnd 1
Gun,
I picked Dolloway despite not liking him. And I don’t dislike him for his voice, I dislike him for thinking he was God’s gift to his season of TUF and thinking that he was anointed to win. Then there’s that whole tapping and saying he didn’t thing.
I’m also rooting for Melvin, the dude has been through a lot these past few years and honestly all that stuff has made him grow up and take things more seriously. Diaz hasn’t looked any different in his last 2 fights, he has not evolved his game and has become more predictable. Melvin is way stronger than Diaz, Melvin’s only dis-advantage will be Nate’s reach and his bjj. I feel that Melvin by this time already knows that his weakness is his ground game and hopefully he has been working on that especially his defense and takedown defense because if he manages to avoid the takdowns and sub attempts from Diaz, he’ll have a good shot at toying with Diaz on the stand-up and problably force Diaz to trade shots and somehwere in that mix he’ll score a ko or ref stoppage.
Even though Huerta will be moving on to other things after this fight, that doesn’t mean that he’s coming in to hand Maynard an easy win, true that Huerta has problably his biggest challenge in front of him in Gray, but so does Maynard, Huerta is no Joe Stevenson and is no pushover, i’m not going to be surprised if Huerta gets the win no matter how he gets it. Maynard is a very tough and talented wrestler but to some degree i feel he’s really underestimating Huerta and that could come back to get-em come fight night. This should be fight of the night IMO, but i’m rooting for El Matador to go out with a Blaze of Glory.
Nice picks guys.
I think Guillard is a great fighter, and he has sick power for a LW. If he can land a few big shots on Diaz, he could come out with a TKO victory. But…i dont see that happening. I think Diaz will use his reach to his advantage, and eventually the fight will hit the mat, once it does I think Diaz will ease his way to a submission. If Guillard had a good ground game, he could really mix it up at 155.
Diaz via Guillotine round2
I think the Huerta-Maynard fight is going to be a war. As MK4 already said, Huerta is a very passionate fighter and takes every opponent seriously. And I think Huerta has more heart than Gray does. Which is why I dont see Huerta getting KO’d or sub’d. I think the first round will go to Maynard. He will overpower his opponent and get a takedown or two. The last 2 rounds will go a little different IMO. I think Huerta’s ring rust will be gone, and he will come out strong and win the last two rounds. Huerta gets a VERY close split decision victory.
Huerta via Split Decision
There’s not much to say about the Condit fight. He cant afford to lose this fight. If he does lose, I highly doubt he would get cut from the UFC. Anyways, I dont think we have to worry about that. I think Condit will get a late first round TKO. His striking is much better than Ellenbergers.
Condit via TKO round1
I think Credeur is out-matched in this fight. He isnt as powerful as Quarry. I see Timmy surviving until round 3. Then Quarry will hit em with a wicked hook. Thats all I have to say about that.
Quarry via KO round3
Cantwell via UD (REALLY hope we get to see this fight after the first or second main card fight)
Pyle via UD
Silva via KO
Stout via TKO
Stephens via TKO
Larson via Sub
Steinbeiss via Split Decision
Noticing a lot of people picking Silva over Dolloway. Is that from dislike of Dolloway or did I miss something with this Silva guy?
I was waiting for someone to say something about that fight haha. Your right, alot of people are picking Silva. For me, its a little bit of both. I dislike Dolloway somewhat. But I think people are greatly underestimating Silva. I know he hasnt fought that great of competition. But you should never underestimate a fighter. Besides, I think Silva has better striking than Dollaway.
Just my opinion though. I could be WAY off on my prediction.
Nate Diaz def. Melvin Guillard via unanimous decision
Roger Huerta def. Gray Maynard via unanimous decision
Carlos Condit def. Jake Ellenberger via submission — Round 1
Nate Quarry def. Tim Credeur via TKO – Round 2
I wonder how we’ll all feel having picked Silva when Dolloway catches him in his Peruvian necktie…
Nate Diaz – sub R2
roger Huerta – tko or subR2
Carlos Condit tko R1
Nate quarry – tko R1
Steve Cantwell – tko – R1
chris wilson – split decision
jay Silva ko – R1
Phillipe Nover – split decision
Jeremy Stephens unanimous decision
Brock Larson sub R2
and im not sure who will win between Steve and Ryan
diaz vs guillard- diaz by tko or sub round 2
maynard vs huerta- tough one, maynard by UD
carlos condit vs jake ellenberg- condit sub round 1
nate quarry vs tim credeur- credeur sub round 2 or 3
cantwell vs stann- meantle fight, should definetly be broadcast the fact that its not makes wec look sh*t, i think cantwell by anything
chris wilson vs mike pyle- wilson by tko round 2
cb dollaway vs jay silva- tough one but i’m going for dollaway by GnP round 1 or 2
sam stout vs phillipe nover- stout by tko round 1,2 or 3
jeremy stephens vs justin bucholz- bucholz by sub round 1 or 3, tough one to call though
brock larson vs someone- larson by tko or sub round 1
ryan jensen (who is a joke) vs steve steinbass- steinbass by ko round 1 or 2
these predections are as good as it gets
brian stann is training with greg jackson for this fight, i’m cosidering disagreeing with everyone else and betting on him to beat cantwell
thats definitly a huge factor petterson that i was also thinking about….but stann has been with jacksons for the kryzstoff fight also…It should be nice to see if hes improved or not yet
I hope Stann has improved, and actually want him to win. However, what I’ve seen of both fighters since joining the UFC, Cantwell has improved a lot more than Stann from their previous two fights
Thanks for the picks. Always nice to read a post like this. I’d say Stann/Robot ends in a TKO or KO though…
oh i didn’t know that, but i think he knows he has to improve alot and he might come into this fight pretty well prepared, it should be interesting to see
These are all going to be great fights. I too am rooting for guillard. Although he’s made mistakes that have kept him from training and fighting, i believe he has the potential to be a big threat in the lw division. If he managed to work on his grappling and and his ground game he would be one dangerous dude. I’ve never been a fan of his attitude but I am a fan of his fighting style and ko’s. He’s going to be too strong for diaz and nate will be going to sleep tonight.
I’m also pulling for quarry,huerta,condit and larson.
i like ur picks justin except i got huerta by ud and nover by ud. i say gray like all wrestlers at 155 seem to b doin trys to stand wit huerta. huertas got more weapons standing the gray does so i see him frustratin gray on the feet. if gray decides to use his takedowns i still see huerta frustratin him on the feet and scramblin to his feet. as for nover i liked him on TUF and all though i dont think he has wat it takes yet to hang wit the big dogs at 155 i think he has enough talent to get the decision against stout who is a solid mid-tier fighter in that division.
Wow, I really need to post more/homework less. I’m getting behind in priorities.
Okay, so I have it
Diaz Sub 1 – This one was hard because you can’t ever discredit Guillards power and speed, and the fact that the Diaz brothers keep their chins so high in the air, but I think Melvin is pretty far behind Nate’s sub game and that’s going to hurt him.
Maynard UD – Maynard has stayed active while Roger has been missing. Plus Maynard is a superior wrestler and when Roger faced Guida that is the area that hurt him the most. Plus Grey is larger and stronger than Guida so he should be able to control Huerta even more.
Condit by TKO 2 – I think Carlos is too good for this one, but we’ll see.
I also have Cantwell TKOing Stann again. Brian’s run of scary KO’s are a bit over I think.
Rounding it up then I have Dollaway, Credeur, Stout, Stevens and Larson.
Brock Larson being in the prelims paired with an unknown fighter is kinda strange to me. Anyone else pick up on this?
There are a few fights on the undercard that I would like to see but hey good card and good stuff,
I tried to post my picks earlier but well long story short was unsuccessful so here is the quick read of them
Anything that happens in Oklahoma doesn’t have much logic to it and tonight most likely would be the same..
Guillard by (t)ko due to a few things, Nate said he wants to stand with Melvin ummmmmm bad Idea… On Monday Nate said he weighed 157 and he had a helll of a time cutting A pound.. Sure logically speaking Nate should win via triagle or some other choke but I’m going with Melvin on this one (t)ko early 2nd round…
Huerta’s last fight in the UFC he will most likely lose via UD, I just think that Gray has enough power to keep Roger on the ground for a majority of the bout, I know that Huerta has some really good escapes but I just believe that Gray will get the decision..
Carlos Condit by being insane and submitting Ellenberger inside of 3 minutes 1st round, Condit has ALOT to prove to the UFC fans and I believe that will drive him to a victory
Quarry via (t)ko early in the 3rd, I like Tim by Nate is just going to be too much for him tonight…
Stann v Cantwell I’m just looking forward to this bout I hope that the UFC finds time to put this on tonights telecast, I see Cantwell being too much and winning by sub late in the 3rd tho Steve has a better all around game Stann has good power and he will be putting his faith in that… Ya he is now with Jackson but I don’t see him putting together a plan that will differ from every other time I’ve seen Stann fight…. Should be awesome
Pyle should win via sub, the guy has talent lets see if he can execute his will and win via sub
Silva by decision, CB is going to just mentally break after not being able to sub Silva and CB will lose by split decision
sorry had to run for a minute now I will finish up my thoughts
I think that Stout will stay on the outside of Nover and pull of a rather dominating Decision, I do like Nover but I just think that Stout will be too much tonight…
Buchholz suprises everyone by submitting Stephens, why cuz its in Oklahoma, ya doesn’t make sense does it….
Brock Larson by whatever he wishes to do, but I’m going with an anaconda choke mid first round, I’ve always enjoyed watching Brock fight this should be good
Jensen by UD in a decent fight